Article: China's military budget to rise 17.8% in 2007
Source: ChannelNewsAsia
Date: 04/03/2007

This article reports that China has increased its military budget by a whole whooping 17.8% for the year 2007, sparking fresh rumours that this could lead to a military offensive and thus destabilising the region.

The claims are not without basis. Just 2 months ago, China launched a ballistic missile to destroy an aging Chinese satelite, possibly testing new technology and showing off at the same time. It sparked widespread criticism, particularly from the US, whom till today has superiority in space. And now with this increase of budget, the international community would have more reason to worry.

However, I feel that the possibility of China going into an unprovoked war is rather unlikely. This is because the cons of going into war far ourweighs the pros. Cons include, firstly, war is expensive and a huge burden on the economy. The money could be better spent on China's booming economy. Secondly, the UN would not approve and economic sanctions could be taken against China, though that might not have the impact intended. In short, war has no place in the world today.

China's military movements like the recent ballistic missile test and navy mannuevers are in fact not an act of aggresion but an act of deterrent. By regularly holding navy mannuevers near the Taiwanese border, it is in fact reminding Taiwan that should it toe the line and declare independence, China would react strongly and retake the island by force. Assuming the Chinese recognise the pointlessness of wars, then it is safe to say that the Chinese will not enter a war unless forced to by Taiwan or any other nation which threatens their existence. As long as Taiwanese President Chen Shui-Bian continues his policy of "all talk, no action", there will be no war fought over the Formosa Straits.

There are mainly 4 point of views here: China, Taiwan, USA and the UN. As stated earlier, it would not be beneficial for China to enter a war. For Taiwan, declaring independence had been on their agenda for a long time but bearing in mind that the US might not help them and China would use force to retake the island, it would be disastrous if Taiwan was to declare independence. The US would not enter into another war as their economy would not afford it and congress would never approve a third war in ten years. And finally, the UN would stand to its policy of diplomacy and world peace.

I feel however, that my views are very much subjective. This could be because personally I am against all kinds of warfare regardless of cause, myself being a peace-loving citizen. Therefore this characteristic could affect my judgement if I used the method of putting myself in China's shoes.